Theme: JGB Collapse!

Introduction

This is a list of articles covering the somewhat slow-paced collapse of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market.


As I discuss in this article, there has been a pivot (starting around 2012) towards replacing JGB collapse stories with 'Yen Crash' theories.

Timing The Collapse Of The JGB Market

• Why will the JGB market collapse?

Extreme Predictions About The Collapse Of The JGB Market

Visionaries? Greatly Mistaken? I'll let you, the reader, decide. A compendium of extreme forecasts about Japan and JGB's which appeared after the inception of this blog.  (Too many occurred before to hope to cover properly.)

•  Fujimaki: Japanese Hyperinflation By 2015! (Update: He argued that the yen is going to 200 in December 2014.) Verdict: Fail.
• Fujimaki, once again, in 2016. No date on the hyperinflation call this time.
• How Fiat Dies (Vincent Cate): Bank of Japan Printing At Hyperinflationary Rates  Argument being that this should hit the price level soon (he is monitoring the data since May 2013).
• Kyle Bass - Yen beyond 300, JGB yields of 20%. Open-ended prediction date.
• Feldman (Morgan Stanley MUFG) - possible "collapse" if fiscal reforms not completed by 2-3 years (early 2017 at the latest); sees inflation risks.
• David Stockman: Yen 200, JGB default. No horizon given.
• Mark Adonis - JGB's doomed because of demographics (my article 2015-01-04). No date given, but within a "few" years of early 2015, so starting around 2018 or so.